When job ads outnumber real jobs (October 2025)
Welcome to the *inaugural* edition of the Career Futures newsletter. Sign up here to get it in your inbox.
The future of work isn’t some distant horizon. It’s unfolding all around us. Hiring is slowing, AI is reshaping how businesses run, and the skills that matter most are shifting faster than ever. For educators and workforce leaders, that mix can feel both full of possibility and full of pressure.
Students and job seekers are stepping into a labor market that won’t always wait for them to catch up. Our job is to make sure they don’t have to do it alone.
Trend: When job ads outnumber real jobs
It’s no surprise that the labor market is sending mixed signals, but the news lately has been especially hard to parse. Indeed’s Hiring Lab reports that, while job postings are down slightly year over year, they’re still actually above pre-pandemic levels. LinkedIn, meanwhile, reports that hiring is 20% below pre-pandemic levels. In other words, there are plenty of ads, but far fewer jobs actually materializing. This certainly squares with what we’ve been seeing and hearing from job-seekers in our network.
For new grads, that mismatch can be devastating. A full 70% of 2025 graduates and 60% of 2024 graduates have yet to find full-time employment related to their education, according to Cengage’s latest Graduate Employability report. Additionally:
Half of the class of 2023 remains underemployed two full years after graduating, reports The Burning Glass Institute
Job growth for 22–25-year-olds has stalled, according to Stanford researchers
Only 62% of internships converted to full-time offers this year according to NACE, the lowest in five years
The evidence is growing that roles most exposed to AI are disappearing the fastest. Even where jobs are growing, they’re often in retail or food service, not in the professional fields degree-holders trained for.
Adding to the uncertainty, fresh data from the Labor Department last week showed jobless claims unexpectedly falling, GDP growth revised up, and consumer spending stronger than expected—even as hiring continues to slow. It’s no wonder the outlook feels confusing!
Bonus: This report from Yale’s Budget Lab claiming that “the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago” just released. If you’ve read it, let me know what you think. I’ve only had the chance to skim so far.
Policy watch: states expand career navigation
Shoutout to the ASA Center for Career Navigation at JFF, which has been putting out a lot of great career navigation resources lately, including a policy tracker for all 50 US states.
So far in 2025, lawmakers in 44 states introduced over 300 bills to expand career navigation support, 87 of which have become law. It’s great to see policymakers recognizing that career navigation support is a core part of the education-to-work pipeline. Recent highlights:
Texas has appropriated millions to expand K-12 college and career advising and online navigation tools
California allocated $25M to community colleges to support justice-involved students through the Rising Scholars Network
Louisiana is forming a new statewide task force on career alignment
Georgia now requires students to develop a career plan starting in eight grade and update it annually
The latest from Coach and CareerVillage.org
Coach gets more personal and more flexible
Our August and September updates make Coach easier to use and customize. A redesigned onboarding now gives users a smoother start, meaning faster context-gathering and better guidance right from the start. The team has also done some very cool work to give partners much more control over the look and feel of the widget.
The new onboarding flow
Welcome new partners
We’re excited to welcome five new organizations to the Coach community: American Student Assistance, LA-Tech, Athens State University, Forsyth Tech Community College, and Technovation. These partners span workforce, higher ed, nonprofits, and STEM. Together, they’ll bring Coach to more learners and expand access to career guidance.
Launching the Coach Innovation Lab
We’ve launched the Coach Innovation Lab—a six-month, learner-led group that brings diverse perspectives into the earliest stages of our product design process. This group will help us better understand learner needs, uncover new ideas, and test emerging solutions, ensuring Coach continues to evolve in ways that truly serve its users.
LinkedIn Live event: What’s broken in the labor market, and how can we fix it?
On September 10, we held the first episode in our Future of Career Navigation series. CareerVillage.org Executive Director Jared Chung talked to Aneesh Raman (LinkedIn) and Kerry McKittrick (Harvard Project on Workforce) about how AI, automation, and labor market shifts are reshaping career navigation. Check it out here, and stay tuned for the next one.
Partner spotlight: University of Florida College of Nursing
The nursing shortage in the U.S. and worldwide is growing. Recruiting and keeping nurses is critical. But nursing has dozens of career paths (something I never knew), and helping new nurses find the right fit is hard.
Nursing students using Coach to explore careers
The University of Florida College of Nursing is tackling this challenge head-on. As an innovation partner, UF Nursing has been a driving force in shaping Coach’s nursing module. Last year, we worked together to gather feedback from over 100 students, nurses, and faculty through interviews and testing. This helped ensure every activity was realistic and aligned with standards.
This school year, 600 UF nursing students will use Coach’s nursing module regularly to explore specializations, role-play scenarios, and chart pathways aligned with their strengths and interests. The goal: better matches, better retention, and ultimately, better care.
What I’m reading
Beyond The Buzz: Developing the AI Skills Employers Actually Need, Lightcast
The Expertise Upheaval, The Burning Glass Institute
The Broken Marketplace: America’s School-to-Work Crisis, Schultz Family Foundation
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence (working paper), Stanford Digital Economy Lab
AI presents promising opportunities to augment human-centered career coaching, Jobs for the Future
Thanks for reading 👋
– Eric Fershtman, CareerVillage.org
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